Mozambique

Portuguese TV reported that RENAMO leader Afonso Dhlakama told supporters at a rally on Feb. 2 that "the true president of Mozambique is not Chissano. His name is Afonso Macacho Montessa Dhlakama." Dhlakama added that upon his return to Mozambique's capital, Maputo, he would give the government a 10-day deadline to settle the election issue once and for all before he declares a separate RENAMO government.

Dhlakama is contesting the veracity of Mozambique's December election results, claiming that he won the presidency and a majority in the parliament. In fact, Mozambique's election process leaves much room for manipulation, since politically appointed representatives oversee elections.

Dhlakama bases his claims on extensive errors and fraud that occurred during the election process. According to Electoral Administration Technical Secretariat's (STAE) figures, 550 presidential ballots and 727 parliamentary ballots contained problems so severe that the data could not be recovered. These ballots comprised 6.6 percent of the presidential polling stations and 8.7 percent of parliamentary polling stations. Most of these ballots came from polling stations in provinces where Dhlakama's support was strong. However, the final results of the elections left Chissano with 52.29 percent and Dhlakama with 47.71 percent - a difference of only 4.58 percent.

The rally in Niassa province is the most recent stop on a tour in which Dhlakama claims that RENAMO party won a majority in Mozambique's recent elections. Dhlakama has threatened to declare his separate government in these parts of the country. The line is clearly drawn. The Save River marks the border between the north- central provinces where RENAMO has a majority and the southern provinces where FRELIMO is the majority. The only exception is Cabo Delgado province in the northeast where FRELIMO won the majority. Cabo Delgado - surrounded by provinces that support RENAMO - would be a likely place for conflict to resume between the two groups.

Following Mozambique's independence in June 1975, the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) quickly established a one-party Marxist state and outlawed rival political activity. A civil war between the FRELIMO government and the Mozambique Resistance Movement (RENAMO) began in 1976. Originally, South Africa and Rhodesia supported RENAMO against the government. In 1992, FRELIMO and RENAMO signed a General Peace Accord and in 1994, in the country's first free elections, Chissano was elected president with 53 percent of the vote. FRELIMO took 129 seats in the parliament. RENAMO garnered 112 seats in the same election.

Dhlakama's actions are raising serious concern of renewed violence. Dhlakama told Mozambican radio on Jan. 25 that RENAMO would never resume hostilities in Mozambique, but that implied a threat of violence. He said on the radio, "I shall never give the order for a shot to be fired." He then added, "of course there will be those who will feel offended and become upset and break with us and resume war," implying that there is nothing he could -- or would -- do if violence breaks out.

Indicating the seriousness of resurgent violence, Dhlakama announced Jan. 28 that RENAMO will move its headquarters from Maputo to Beira, capital of the central Sofala province and one of Dhlakama's strongholds. This announcement followed the threat of establishing parallel provincial governments. While speaking on Jan. 31, Dhlakama said, "I swear, Chissano will not govern this country until he agrees to sit at the negotiating table and come to a political agreement." That same day, he pledged that his people would engage in civil disobedience if he and the RENAMO were prevented from taking office.

While the threats and aspirations of Dhlakama to establish his own government and threaten Mozambique's stability are significant, his ability to make good on these threats is considerably less substantial. The will is there but the means are lacking.

According to the Portuguese newspaper Publico, RENAMO is practically demilitarized with only a few dozen armed guards remaining. Also, it is not clear that all of RENAMO's smaller allied parties are ready to undertake such an endeavor. Maximo Dias, leader of the Mozambican Nationalist Movement (MONAMO), told the Mozambique News Agency that he is not prepared to serve in any parallel government that Dhlakama may establish. Also, during its long civil war with FRELIMO, the apartheid government of South Africa backed RENAMO in its efforts because FRELIMO was supporting South African resistance movements at the time. The current South African government is interested in keeping neighboring countries stable and is unlikely to back a RENAMO uprising.

Chissano responded to Dhlakama's comments on Feb. 3 saying that he had no intention of negotiating with Dhlakama over the inclusion of RENAMO members in the Mozambican government. However, he did say he was willing to enter a broad dialogue with the entire opposition to discuss ways of improving the well-being of the population. This indicates that Chissano is at least not shrugging off Dhlakama even though he publicly claims he is not worried. While RENAMO is not as big a threat as it would like to appear, Chissano will still have to handle the situation very carefully.

Reports are surfacing that government corruption is partly to blame for Mozambique's poor efforts in rescuing flood victims. One report in Mozambique's Imparcial newspaper inadvertently alluded to the weak and corrupt state of Mozambique's military. Now that the under-equipped military is tied down in flood relief operations, Mozambique Resistance Movement (RENAMO) leader Afonso Dhlakama may seize the opportunity and attempt to topple the Mozambique Liberation Front (FRELIMO) government.

The recent floods in Mozambique, which began in February, economically have devastated an already destitute country. The vast majority of the destruction took place in the southern part of Mozambique, where the support base of President Joaquim Chissano's FRELIMO government is concentrated. Nearly one million people have lost their homes, farms or food supplies. One third of the country's staple crop, corn, has been destroyed along with 40,000 head of cattle and 141 schools. The death toll, currently near 500, is expected to rise well into the thousands after the waters recede.

Imparcial newspaper reported March 9 that air force planes and helicopters failed to rescue flood victims because their engines had either been stolen or smuggled out of the country by senior FRELIMO officials. According to the report, this is "common knowledge" among Mozambicans. Chissano could neither deny nor confirm the allegation and told reporters that the aircraft were not operational because of a lack of spare parts.

RENAMO is now criticizing the government's handling of the flood in order to rally public support away from Chissano. Raul Domingos, a top RENAMO official, claimed that weather forecasters warned as early as September that Mozambique would experience more rain than normal, and he accused the FRELIMO government of failing to do anything to prevent the humanitarian catastrophe. Domingos also claimed that it had taken Chissano at least a week to declare a disaster and seek international help.

One area of significant flooding occurred along the Save River. The river also divides FRELIMO supporters in the south from RENAMO supporters in the north. A civil war between the two began in 1976 following Mozambique's independence from Portugal. At the time, the governments of South Africa and Rhodesia supported RENAMO because FRELIMO supported South African and Zimbabwean liberation movements. In 1984 Mozambique and South Africa signed the Nkomati accords, which committed both countries to cease hostilities. Despite the reduction in RENAMO's external support, the government could not win the war and a peace accord was signed in 1992.

When the civil war between FRELIMO and RENAMO ended in 1992 the army was disbanded and the condition of its hardware began to deteriorate. Now Mozambique has only two airworthy helicopters, making international aircraft absolutely necessary for rescue and aid operations. Mozambique is not easily accessible to Western emergency-relief teams because there are no American or European military bases nearby. And Zimbabwe's fleet of helicopters is tied up fighting in the Democratic Republic of Congo. During the earliest and most critical days of the flooding, South Africa actually led the rescue operation with seven helicopters and an 85- member team. U.S., European and other African rescue assistance did not arrive for days, even weeks, later.

Public support for the FRELIMO government will only worsen as the situation deteriorates, putting even more pressure on the government to resolve the crisis. Weather forecasters are actually predicting more rain. Mozambican authorities, at this point, are still unable to provide food and medicine to some of the hardest-hit villages. The timing of the floods and the devastation of farming fields will likely cause farmers to miss the start of the next growing season.

Undoubtedly, RENAMO's Dhlakama will continue to capitalize on the negative reports, spreading his rhetoric into FRELIMO territory. Following the December 1999 elections, while he officially lost, Dhlakama claims he won the presidency and a majority in parliament and has threatened to set up his own separate government in RENAMO territory. But he may now be able to pose a military threat, as well as political.

While Chissano is busy trying to restore southern Mozambique, Dhlakama has the perfect opportunity to follow through on his earlier threat of establishing a RENAMO government in the north to challenge FRELIMO. If this occurs, Chissano's resources would most likely be spread too thin to simultaneously restore his southern support base and prevent the rise of Dhlakama.

Currently, Chissano has at least the presence and support of international powers. However, if the rift between RENAMO and FRELIMO erupted into renewed violence, relief missions would quickly pack up and go home so as not to be caught in the middle.

If Dhlakama, still incensed over the elections dispute, threatens violence - even on a small scale - Chissano's FRELIMO is caught in a lose-lose situation. Since the end of the civil war, a new FRELIMO army has begun forming, but thus far it is tiny and disorganized. RENAMO is also essentially demilitarized but has some loyal armed guards remaining. On the one hand, if FRELIMO is forced to mobilize against RENAMO, it cannot focus its attention on rescuing and aiding flood victims, which would cause further popular dissent. On the other hand, if it focuses solely on rescue operations, it cannot defend against a possible RENAMO attack. Chissano's military is effectively too small and disorganized to accomplish both.