Montenegro
Montenegrin Social Democratic Party (SDP) leader Zarko Rakcevic
on June 16 rejected calls by the Liberal Alliance to pull his
party out of the ruling coalition, a move that would force early
elections and, the Liberal Alliance hopes, facilitate efforts to
achieve Montenegrin independence from Yugoslavia. Rakcevic said
that the Montenegrin government did not support independence
moves at this time because Montenegro remained "under military
siege." He also said that, besides the heavy Yugoslav army
presence in the province, the refugee crisis inside Montenegro
and the international community's desire to achieve peace in
Kosovo by keeping the province under Yugoslav sovereignty both
stood in the way of Montenegro's independence bid. The SDP does,
however, support the movement for Montenegro's eventual
independence.
There have been rumblings in Montenegro for and against
independence since well before the Kosovo crisis broke out.
Yugoslav President Slobodan Milosevic has gone so far as to
blockade the smaller of Yugoslavia's constituent republics, in an
effort to undermine Montenegro's pro-Western leadership. When
Milosevic's chosen candidate, Momir Bulatovic, failed both to
defeat Milo Djukanovic in Montenegro's presidential elections and
to bloc Djukanovic from taking office, Milosevic named Bulatovic
Prime Minister of Yugoslavia. Bulatovic and his pro-Belgrade
Socialist People's Party staged a series of demonstrations
against the Djukanovic government during NATO's bombing campaign,
in response to Djukanovic's declaration of Montenegrin neutrality
in the conflict. As the conflict progressed, Yugoslav Army
troops increased their presence in the republic and stepped up
pressure on the Djukanovic regime -- seizing border posts and
ports, surrounding Podgorica, clamping down on the foreign and
local media, attempting to force conscription, and attempting to
assert control over the Montenegrin police. With the prospects
of a Belgrade backed coup d'etat in the republic apparently high,
the U.S. and NATO repeatedly vowed to retaliate if Milosevic
moved against Djukanovic.
Milosevic did not make a move, though the pressure on Montenegro
has not eased, nor have the pro and anti-independence rumblings.
On June 16, Bulatovic warned that "duality of power in
Montenegro" would not be tolerated, and that Belgrade would not
allow for "the independence of Montenegro and the breaking off of
Yugoslavia." On the other side, Liberal Alliance leader Miodrag
Zivkovic has called on the Djukanovic government to seek
Montenegrin independence or, if not, to at very least help
overthrow Milosevic. Along with the Liberal Alliance, the
Movement for Independent Montenegro -- a group of intellectuals,
academics, writers and media representatives founded on June 10 -
- is actively campaigning for Montenegrin secession. Somewhere
in the middle, a group of Montenegrin academics has drawn up a
proposed redefinition of the relationship between Serbia and
Montenegro, which would guarantee equality between the two and
minimize the role of the Yugoslav federal government. And
Serbian Renewal Movement leader Vuk Draskovic suggested on
Pancevo Radio on June 15 that a Montenegrin from Djukanovic's
party should hold the post of Yugoslav prime minister. The
Montenegrin Information Ministry said that Djukanovic himself was
not seeking a federal office, despite Draskovic's suggestion and
other speculation that Djukanovic might seek the Yugoslav
presidency.
Djukanovic has trod a careful line, arguing during visits to
Bulgaria and Romania this week that Montenegro would only remain
in the Yugoslav Federation if Serbia chooses a path of
democratization. Djukanovic said that Montenegro could hold a
referendum on independence if Milosevic and his allies remained
in power in Belgrade, but insisted that now was not the time for
such a move. Djukanovic argued that a referendum could not be
held while a state of war still existed, and that peace and
stability were prerequisites for an independence vote. While
Djukanovic has hesitated on a Montenegrin independence bid, he
has continued to reach out eagerly to the West, receiving
assurances during a meeting with European Union envoys Wolfgang
Petrich and Claus Boneman that Montenegro would play a direct
role in the Pact for Southeast European Stability. Djukanovic
met U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright in Cologne on June
9, where he received assurances of continued U.S. support and
reaffirmed his earlier offer to provide logistical support to
NATO operations in Kosovo. Djukanovic is scheduled to meet U.S.
President Bill Clinton next week in Slovenia.
The eagerness of Montenegro's independence advocates to move
quickly is easy to understand. With Milosevic licking his
wounds, assurances of NATO and the West's good will, and NATO
forces present and still on a war footing in Kosovo and
throughout the region, now appears to be a perfect time to
secede. However, there is much standing in the way of an
independence bid at this time. The Yugoslav Second Army, headed
by pro-Milosevic officers, is still on a war footing in
Montenegro. The battle hardened and bitter Third Army,
withdrawing from Kosovo, could be rapidly deployed to Montenegro.
As Rakcevic pointed out, Montenegro still hosts some 120,000
refugees from Kosovo, Bosnia, and Croatia -- equivalent to 20
percent of Montenegro's population -- and though the ethnic
Albanian refugees are filtering back into Kosovo, Serbs and
Montenegrins are now leaving Kosovo for Montenegro.
Additionally, while NATO has vowed to defend Montenegro against
Serbian aggression, it has not promised to help the republic
secede. In fact, with its hands full in Kosovo, a civil war in
Montenegro could not come at a worse time for NATO. It would
also do nothing to support NATO's efforts to stave off the Kosovo
Liberation Army's independence campaign. Finally, while the West
appreciates Montenegro's democratic political leanings, it would
like to see the same in Serbia, and there is a better chance of
achieving that with Montenegro assisting from inside the
federation than with the republic generating a new burst of
Serbian nationalism and hostility by seceding.
Thus, with assurances of Western aid, Djukanovic appears willing
to delay Montenegro's independence movement for now. Through
careful coordination with the West and with Serbian opposition
forces, he may be able to swing nearly as good a deal without
breaking up the federation -- though perhaps diluting Yugoslavia
to more of a confederation. The question is, will Milosevic,
eager to retain power, attempt to force a new confrontation in
Montenegro?