Lebanon

Speaking to a group of Lebanese journalists on July 26, Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah vowed, "Even if the entire world recognizes Israel, even if they threaten to hang us, we cannot recognize this cancer, this racist and terrorist entity." He added, "Even if the Syrian Golan and southern Lebanon are returned by Israel, there will still be a great national and Islamic problem to resolve... the just and global solution to the Palestinian issue is the restitution of all of Palestine to its true owners."

While acknowledging that the U.S. had increased pressure on Syria and Lebanon to curb terrorist organizations in advance of the talks, Nasrallah denied reports that Syria had ordered Hezbollah and Palestinian factions to cease their attacks on Israel. He vowed, "We are more than ever convinced of the need not only to continue the resistance but to step it up and make it more efficient." "When the negotiations start, Lebanon and Syria will need the resistance more than ever, because they will have to make use of every bargaining counter they have," he added. Nasrallah argued, "There is a risk that [Israeli Prime Minister Ehud] Barak will fail to keep his promise to withdraw from southern Lebanon if we freeze our action."

As a proposed peace agreement between Israel and Syria gains momentum, most of the militant Palestinian factions seem prepared to support the process [http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/c9907270340.htm]. Even Hamas has taken a cautious wait-and-see approach to the talks. The Lebanese Hezbollah, however, is vowing to continue the fight. But rhetoric aside, it appears that even Hezbollah will not be allowed to hinder the peace process. While Nasrallah spoke of the great Islamic problem of occupied Palestine, he specified that Hezbollah would continue its attacks on Israeli and Israeli- backed Lebanese forces in Israeli occupied southern Lebanon. He said nothing about cross border attacks into Israel.

On July 27, Israeli Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz told reporters after meeting with the Israeli parliament defense and foreign affairs committee that, "The Syrians are containing Hezbollah and preventing it from firing Katyusha rockets on Israeli territory." "However," Mofaz went on, "Syria is not restraining Hezbollah when it comes to booby trap bombs set for Israeli soldiers in south Lebanon." Hezbollah claimed responsibility for bomb and mortar attacks on Israeli and allied South Lebanon Army posts on July 26, which resulted in a retaliatory Israeli air strike on a suspected Hezbollah base in southern Lebanon.

Still, Hezbollah seems to be under control. Nasrallah's argument for continuing the fight -- as a bargaining chip -- suggests support for the talks, not opposition to them. Nasrallah even added that, if Barak accepts a resumption of the peace talks with Syria where they broke off in 1996, and supports a withdrawal from the Golan Heights to the June 4, 1967 line, then "the doors will be wide open before the peace negotiations." And the apparent decision to restrict Hezbollah attacks to Lebanon contributes significantly to the peace process, as perhaps the greatest threat to the talks at this time would be a terrorist attacks on Israeli civilians.

While Hezbollah and the Palestinian militant groups are generally viewed as wildcards in the peace process, aside from the occasional fanatic, this is far from reality. Each terrorist group has its sponsor that provides funding, shelter, and support. Each group is therefore subject, to a large extent, to the foreign policy agenda of its sponsor. The Palestinian groups receive direct support from Syria, making it relatively easy for Syria to control their actions. Hezbollah, on the other hand, is loyal to Iran.

Specifically, Hezbollah answers to the hard liners in Tehran -- the same group that both vilifies the Zionist state and swaps hostages for Israeli arms. Currently, Iran's hard liners are focused on regaining control of Iran's domestic political situation in the wake of massive student demonstrations and hard line vigilante retaliation. With Iran unable to turn its full attention to playing the Hezbollah card, Syria -- the traditional conduit of Iranian support to Hezbollah -- has taken over. Were Iran to be fully engaged and hostile to the peace process, Syria's ability to close off one supply route to the Hezbollah would not be enough to stop the group from disrupting the talks. Iran could still supply Hezbollah by sea. However, Syria has a much more powerful lever to employ in bringing Hezbollah in line -- a piece of the action. Syria, which is already the dominant force in Lebanon and stands poised to consolidate its control throughout the country, can cut Hezbollah out of its share in the illicit traffic -- particularly of narcotics -- that passes through Lebanon.

Like the so called narco-guerrillas in Colombia, Hezbollah provides security for and facilitates the transshipment of drugs through Lebanon, and in exchange receives a substantial amount of financial and logistical support for its services. Unlike the Colombian guerrillas, Hezbollah cannot maintain its presence indefinitely without the support of its sponsor. There are a host of other factions in Lebanon willing and able to take over for Hezbollah, should it lose the good will of Syria. And regardless of Iranian support, Hezbollah could not long function in southern Lebanon against the combined hostility of Israel, Syria, and the Amal militia. Thus, while Nasrallah continues the time honored anti-Israeli rhetoric, he is careful to point out that Hezbollah intends only to continue to stay in business in southern Lebanon and will not necessarily disrupt the peace talks.

With the PLO, Hamas, the bulk of the remaining Palestinian splinter groups, and now Hezbollah willing to give the peace talks a chance, the threat of terrorist disruption of the talks has been narrowed to lone Palestinian or Israeli radicals. Unfortunately, they can be the hardest to identify and intercept.

Lebanese security forces appear to be wrapping up a six-day crackdown on Sunni militants in the hills outside the northern city of Tripoli. The fighting began Dec. 31 when members of al-takfir wal hijra, an obscure Moslem extremist group, ambushed a Lebanese army patrol near Assun, killing four soldiers. The army, quick to respond, flooded the area with some 3,000 troops and artillery. At last count, about 25 rebels were reported killed and 55 captured, while the army reports losing 11 men.

According to Lebanese media, the group was composed of dissidents from more established terrorist groups in the area such as Al- Tawheed and Jamaa al-Islamiyya. The small group numbered between 150 and 200 fighters and had only been established within the last two years. Although Lebanese commentators generally dismiss al- takfir wal hijra as disorganized and insignificant, the group has been linked to several actions within the last few months.

Four Christian churches in Lebanon were bombed between Oct. 3 and Nov. 13. Although little damage occurred, the attacks came at a delicate moment for Israel and Syria, which were discussing a potential Israeli pullout from Lebanon. Although it did not claim responsibility for the attack, al-takfir wal hijra was on the short list of suspects in the bombing.

A second set of incidents occurred this past week at the same time that al-takfir was engaged with government forces. On Jan. 2, a Palestinian man fired several rocket-propelled grenades at the Russian embassy in Beirut. The same day, a man with a grenade attacked a Lebanese army road block near the Ain el-Helweh refugee camp. Suspicion for both attacks fell on a Palestinian group called the Partisan League, which is reportedly linked to al-takfir wal hijra.

The character of the Lebanese attack speaks volumes about how seriously the governments take the terrorists. The army's incredibly rapid reaction and the thoroughness of the attack indicate that the group is not merely being defeated, it is being exterminated. Following the initial ambush, the Sunni militant forces apparently attempted to break up and disappear into the surrounding countryside. According to Deutsche Presse Agentur, Lebanese security forces have blocked all escape routes from the hills and are systematically clearing villages of Sunni militant forces. This tactic appears to be working, as the top three leaders of al-takfir are reportedly dead.

The Lebanese government is portraying this campaign as a symbol of its willingness and ability to keep order within its own borders. However, credit for the crackdown should go to Syria, which is the major power broker in Lebanon. This is especially true in the north, where Syria has stationed the majority of its 30,000 troops in Lebanon.

Syria has two motives for suppressing the militants. First, stability within Lebanon is a precondition for any peace deal between Israel and Syria. In the past two months, Syria has arrested scores of activists within Syria and Lebanon as precautionary measures, according to the Mideast Mirror. Syria has even been able to control the Iranian-backed Hezbollah guerrillas in southern Lebanon ( http://www.stratfor.com/MEAF/commentary/m9912172255.htm ). Even though al-takfir wal hijra appears relatively harmless, any type of destabilizing activity is not to be tolerated.

Second, Syrian President Hafez Assad is likely attempting to root out any future challenges to the Syrian government, especially those that might surface after his death. At present, Assad maintains an iron grip on Syria and is not threatened by any internal challenges. However, his health is failing, and he has left no clear successor. By destroying al-takfir, Assad is removing a force that might take advantage of the potential confusion that could follow his death.

Al-takfir wal hijra was never a serious security threat to Syria, Israel or even Lebanon. But that is exactly the point. The major threats to Lebanese security have been neutralized, leaving only obscure groups that are marginally effective. They are among the last of a dwindling set of militants, formerly sheltered by Syria and now hunted by it. They are lashing out not only to forestall the accord between Syria and Israel - but to stave off their own extermination.