Kenya and Ethiopia


Kenya and Ethiopia have agreed to mount joint operations along their common border against Ethiopian rebels. The OLF guerrillas, operating out of Somalia and Kenya, have received support from Eritrea, which is using them as proxies to relieve pressure in its border war with Ethiopia. Ethiopia, in turn, has reportedly launched another assault on the forces of Somali warlord Hussein Mohamed Aideed, who is acting as a middleman between Eritrea and the OLF. To cap things off, Aideed has appealed to Libya, which is already reportedly assisting Eritrea, to intervene against Ethiopian incursions into Somalia. The war in the Horn of Africa continues to widen -- now drawing in Kenya and possibly a deeper Libyan involvement.

A three day meeting of Ethiopian and Kenyan officials responsible for security along their common border ended June 9 in Nazaret, Ethiopia, with a decision to carry out joint operations against Ethiopian Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and ethnic Somali Al- Ittihad Al-Islamiya rebels. A joint communique issued at the end of the annual meeting also condemned "certain countries of the sub-region" for supporting the terrorist activities of the OLF and Al-Ittihad. Though not made explicit, the statement was clearly targeted at Eritrea, which has sponsored the OLF in an attempt to divert Ethiopian military resources from the two countries' ongoing border war. The OLF reportedly infiltrates both Ethiopia and Kenya from bases in Somalia's Gedo region. The rebels have a main base in Coriolei, 77 miles southwest of Mogadishu.

Oromo guerrillas have previously sought refuge in Kenya, among related tribes, but rebel activity has increased significantly along Ethiopia's borders with both Somalia and Kenya since Eritrea began increasing support to the OLF. Kenya's Daily Nation newspaper reported June 9 that two OLF rebels were killed and 13 were captured on June 8 in the Moyale District. Whether the same incident or another clash is unclear, but also on June 8, Kenyan security forces reported that they had killed four Ethiopian soldiers in a clash near Moyale, though the dead were later identified as OLF fighters. A clash the previous week between OLF rebels and Ethiopian soldiers in the Ethiopian border town of Gurasa Kurbu reportedly left four Ethiopian soldiers dead, and Kenyan officials claimed that some 100 OLF rebels continue to roam the border in the area.

Ethiopia has responded to the upsurge in Somalia-based rebel activities by launching several raids into Somalia this year -- the latest just this week -- as well as by backing factions opposing Somali warlord Hussein Mohamed Aideed, who has served as a conduit for Eritrean aid for the rebels. Newspapers in Mogadishu, Aideed's stronghold, reported that Ethiopian troops, backed by a splinter faction of the Somali National Front, attacked and captured the towns of Beled Hawo and Luuq in Gedo region on June 5. The same day, heavily armed Ethiopian soldiers reportedly arrived in the Somali town of Bardale, where they conferred with officials of the Rahanwein Resistance Army (RRA), a faction opposed to Aideed.

On June 6, the Ethiopian and RRA forces launched a fierce attack on the town of Baidoa, about 135 miles northwest of Mogadishu, routing Aideed's forces. The RRA, which denied it had received Ethiopian support in the attack, claimed to have killed 40 of Aideed's militiamen and to have captured more than 100, including OLF members. The RRA also claimed to have captured 32 of Aideed's vehicles, many of them "technicals" -- light trucks mounted with machine guns, recoilless rifles, or light artillery. Aideed's forces reportedly withdrew to Buurhakaba, on the road to Mogadishu. Radio Aideed claimed on June 7 that Ethiopian forces were advancing on the airfield at Balidogle, 55 miles southwest of Mogadishu, the only field in Somalia capable of handling large transport aircraft. Eritrea has reportedly supplied Aideed and the OLF through Balidogle. A large Ethiopian convoy had reportedly reached Dinsor by June 9, bound for Coriolei.

A spokesman for Aideed called the attack on Baidoa "pure aggression by the Ethiopian government to occupy a sovereign state," and called on the UN, Arab League, and Organization of African Unity to demand Ethiopia's withdrawal. Aideed and a delegation of Somali faction leaders were in Tripoli, at the time, where he appealed to Libyan leader Moammar Khaddafi to intervene in Somalia's internal conflicts and to help repair Somalia's relations with neighboring countries. While rumor in Mogadishu was that Khaddafi was mediating a secret meeting between Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi and Aideed, it is more likely that Aideed was negotiating for Libyan military aid. Libya has already reportedly supported Eritrea in its war with Ethiopia, and Khaddafi discussed regional security issues with Eritrean President Isayas Afewerki via telephone as recently as June 8.

The conflict on the Horn of Africa continues to spread, now drawing the active involvement of Kenya, and possibly a greater involvement by Libya. Ethiopia -- with greater resources and territory and an all but unopposed air force but no foreign sponsor, and Eritrea -- with Arab sponsors and arguably a better ground force but no strategic depth, are deadlocked in their war. But far from pushing for a diplomatic resolution, the stalemate on the Ethiopian-Eritrean border has only caused the war to spiral outward.