Honduras

National Defense Minister of Honduras, Edgardo Dumas Rodriguez, told reporters that military officers might be scheming to take control of the country and reverse the constitutional reforms that weakened the power of the armed forces. The government opened an investigation to "establish whether military personnel intended to recover the power they once held," Dumas said. Media reports suggesting that Joint Chief of Staff Colonel Eugenio Romero and other senior officers were conspiring against Dumas prompted that investigation.

Certainly the threat of a military coup in Honduras is not out of the realm of possibility. After all, the government was overthrown by the military three times this century, and until recently it was dominated by the military. President Carlos Roberto Reina, who began the reforms to weaken the military's influence over the government during the early 1990s, survived three attempts on his life, and continuously faced the threat of military rebellion. Reina's reforms began the process whereby the authority and power of the armed forces were significantly reduced. Indeed, the recent appointment of Dumas as Defense Minister ended four decades of the Honduran military managing its own affairs without civilian influence.

Upon assuming office, Dumas ordered an audit of the recent armed forces commanders to determine how exactly they spent their budgets. Until 1994 the armed forces were unaccountable, and were known to run their own private businesses. Honduran human rights workers have praised Dumas as a fair and honest man, and as the perfect person to oversee the military. With civilians finally overseeing military affairs, it is likely that tensions will rise. Military officials will no longer have the autonomy and freedom that they once enjoyed, which given Honduras' history is reason enough for the military to grow restive. At the same time, there might be other explanations for the suggestion that the military is plotting a possible coup d'etat.

With the closure of Howard Air Force Base (AFB) in Panama, Honduras has become more strategically important to the U.S. The U.S. air base in Soto Cano will be used to support counter narcotics operations in Latin America that will be based from the Caribbean islands Aruba and Curacao. Honduras' stability is even more vital to U.S. interests than ever before with the soon-to- expire U.S. lease on the Panama Canal.

It is possible that this alleged threat to Honduras' stability is nothing more than a cry for help, designed to obtain more disaster relief from the U.S. Central America was ravaged late last year by Hurricane Mitch, and Dumas was among those calling for a new "Marshall Plan" to rebuild Central America. The U.S. Congress passed a bill last week approving $1 billion in funds to help rebuild Central America and Caribbean nations that were ravaged by Mitch. The Honduran government might be worried about how big of a share it will get of the $1 billion, and hope that a threat of instability will get Uncle Sam's attention.

Interestingly, given the importance of Honduras to the U.S. military, and U.S. cooperation with the Honduran military, the United States might actually be in a better position than Dumas to know the real likelihood of a coup. As such, the U.S. military could be in a position to stave off such an attempt. Real or fabricated, Honduras may be seeking U.S. assistance with this latest coup allegation.

Honduran President Carlos Flores Facusse sacked four senior military commanders on July 30. The official Honduran government position argues that the recent reshuffling of the Honduran military was prompted by insubordination on the part of senior military officials. President Flores relieved Vice Minister of Civil Defense Brigadier General Roberto Lazarus Lozano, Joint Chief of Staff of the Honduran Armed Forces Colonel Eugenio Romero Euceda, Inspector General Colonel Jorge Alberto Puerto, and the number two man in the military Colonel Guillermo Linares of their duties. While Minister of Civil Defense Edgardo Dumas was out of the country, Romero and a group of other military officers replaced the Army Chief of Operations and the head of the Honduran Counter-Intelligence branch. On his return to Honduras, Dumas ordered Romero to reverse the changes. Romero refused to comply with Dumas' order, leading to last week's shake-up in the military leadership.

Last week's changes took place against a backdrop of speculation that a coup was being attempted. In May, Dumas warned against the possibility of a coup, and Flores made similar remarks in June, warning coup plotters not to attempt to overthrow his government. Last week both Telenisa Canal 63 and the Mexican Notimex news agency reported that there was a possible coup in the works. Judging by the heavy security surrounding the presidential palace and the fact that the president's helicopter was reportedly on standby all day on July 30, there are grounds to believe that a coup was in the works. Interestingly, military music was reportedly broadcast on radio stations in Honduras, reminiscent of previous coups. However, Flores denied that a coup was attempted. Either way, the scene last week in Honduras certainly appeared to be that of a coup.

In related matters, Telenisa Canal 63 reported on July 30 that Honduran military personnel contacted Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez Frias as well as influential segments of Honduran society in regards to overthrowing Flores. If true, this is a potentially explosive situation for both Chavez and Honduras. It is unclear what proof Telenisa Canal 63 has of the alleged meeting between the Honduran military and Chavez. Furthermore, even if the meeting did take place, there is no evidence that Chavez was willing to help the coup plotters. Stratfor notes that while Chavez staged a coup in 1992, it failed. Surely there must be better people to go to for advice on staging a coup.

After warning of a possible coup earlier this year, and calling out extra security on July 30, Flores denied that there was a coup attempt. Regardless of whether a coup was attempted or not, it at least appeared possible. If there wasn't a coup attempt or the threat of one, why beef up security? If there wasn't a coup, or no threat of one, why put on the show? It is conceivable that the appearance of a threat to the status quo was necessary in order for Flores to tighten his control over the military.

Flores and Dumas have warned against the possibility of a coup since late spring and early summer. The curtailing of the military's influence earlier this year and Dumas' appointment as the first civilian head of the military created tension between the government and the military. In May, Dumas opened an investigation on Romero and other officers that Dumas claimed were plotting against him. After creating such a furor over the possibility of the military staging a coup, and the appearance of one either underway or in the works last week, it is possible that last week's changes were made in order to rein in the military. With the country facing what at least looked like a coup, Flores had justification for making the changes that he did. Control over the military machine in Honduras is an important challenge facing Flores. If Flores hopes to be at the helm to lead his country out of its current economic crisis following Hurricane Mitch last year, he must keep his military chiefs in line.

It is Stratfor's contention that Latin America is poised to be an engine of global economic growth in the next decade. That does not mean that all of Latin America will share equally in that growth. Specters of the region's past continue to plague individual countries. When its economy was staggered by low oil prices, Venezuela responded by electing a populist. His social policies and their impact on the economy have not yet been evident, as he continues to lay the groundwork for constitutional change. Ecuador, struggling to meet the economic restructuring goals set by international lenders, has been wracked by civil unrest and may be seeing the return of a populist leader from its past.

While the appeal of inevitably short term populist solutions to long term economic problems is threatening to hold back the economic development of some Latin American governments, the return of former military juntas threatens others. The civilian government in Honduras is fighting to rein in its military commanders and the civilian government in Chile is faced with a delicate balancing act over the arrest in Britain of former military leader General Augusto Pinochet. The Chilean government is stuck arguing for Pinochet's extradition, in order to appease Pinochet's military supporters. At the same time it would prefer not to have the general back before the elections, since finding him not guilty would undermine the government's civilian support while convicting the general would risk a backlash from the military.

Populists, juntas and guerrillas, oh my! Peru is continuing to clean up the remnants of its guerrilla problems. Colombian President Andres Pastrana, struggling as much with his own government, the military, and the U.S. government as with rebels, seeks to strike a peace accord with the FARC. And there have been hints that Guatemala's rebel movement may be resurfacing as that country tries to recover from Hurricane Mitch. Latin America may be poised to take over from Asia economically, but it continues to be haunted by the ghosts of its past.