Czechoslovakia

On May 12, Czech television broadcast a confirmation made by Azerbaijani officials that the Agroplast company, based in the northern Bohemian town of Liberec, attempted to smuggle six MiG- 21 fighter aircraft to North Korea two months ago. On March 19, the customs authorities in Baku detained dismantled MiGs found on board a Russian Antonov An-124. According to Azerbaijani authorities, the plane carrying MiGs arrived in Baku from Kazakhstan. The aircraft was then to be flown to North Korea, which technically remains in a state of war with the Czech Republic's NATO ally, the United States.

Reacting to the findings, the Czech Minister responsible for the Security Information Service, Jaroslav Basta, said his agency has been monitoring Agroplast's activities since 1994, but it did not anticipate that the company would break the law. Agroplast holds no license that would allow it to sell arms to other countries. The MiG scandal is just another in a series of controversial cases suggesting that, although it is now a NATO member, the Czech Republic continues to ignore Czech businesses' arms dealings with political outcasts.

When it was still a member of the Warsaw pact, Czechoslovakia (the country split into two independent republics, the Czech Republic and Slovakia in 1993), had a reputation of being a major ammunition and explosives supplier to renegade regimes and terrorist groups. Until the fall of the Iron Curtain, Czechoslovakia was believed to be one of the world's largest suppliers of plastic explosives. During the 1970s and 1980s, the Communist Czechoslovak government sold large amounts of Semtex plastic explosive to a number of nations that allegedly sponsored terrorist groups, including Libya, Iraq and North Korea. Semtex was allegedly used to destroy Pan American Airways Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland, in December 1988, killing 270 people. Semtex also showed up in the Afghanistan war. Although Semtex is now believed to be under strict control, and there is a tough export control policy requiring a case-by-case examination of any arms sales from the Czech Republic by the ministries of foreign affairs, defense, trade and the interior, there is a powerful black market in the country. According to the Czech Security Information Service, it is possible to illegally obtain a large number of unregistered arms and ammunition, including Semtex.

Following the collapse of the Czechoslovakia communist regime in 1989, the Czech Republic made great progress in becoming a part of Western political, military, and economic structures. At the same time, however, the country was struggling economically to survive the difficulties associated with the post Cold War economic transformation. Although official figures show arms sales from the Czech Republic declined in the 1990s, a number of cases in recent years reveal that the country was involved in arms dealings with its traditional customers and former communist allies. In 1997, for instance, the Czech government, after the intervention of Washington, halted the attempt by the Czech military and some government elements to sell five Tamara stealth-detection radar systems to Iraq for $375 million. Bulgarian arms dealers allegedly assisted the Czechs in this sale. In 1995, NATO reportedly suspected that Czech-made Tamara radar systems were used by Bosnian Serbs in the hills near Sarajevo to help shoot down a U.S. F-16 fighter.

In April this year, several intelligence sources, including Czech military counterintelligence, claimed Yugoslavia had at least one Tamara, and possibly used it for detecting and shooting down the U.S. F-117 stealth aircraft on March 27. Diplomatic sources quoted by "Intelligence Newsletter" on April 8 said that a couple of weeks before NATO started its air operations in Yugoslavia, Russia supplied the Serbian military with a sophisticated detection system that enabled it to shoot down the F-117. Immediately after the aircraft was shot down, the Czech Defense Ministry launched an investigation into whether Tamaras were supplied to Yugoslavia, and if so, by whom. Because, before 1990, the former-Czechoslovakia had sold several Tamaras to Russia, they could have been passed to the Serbs via Moscow. According to a former employee of Tesla Pardubice -- the Czech company that produces Tamaras -- if the system was used in the Kosovo conflict, it could only be operated by someone trained by Russians, who were, in turn, trained in the Czech Republic. Although Tesla may not now be directly involved in the alleged transfer of Tamaras to Yugoslavia, the allegation that Prague must have been the original source of this technology is indicative of the open channels for commerce in high tech weapons systems.

Whatever the nature of the past involvement of this government in such arms deals, the weapons manufacturers in the Czech Republic currently put the Czech Republic's NATO allies in a precarious position by providing equipment and technical know-how to NATO and U.S. adversaries. In particular, Prague has received several U.S. State Department protests over its cooperation in helping develop the nuclear industry in Iran. The Czech Republic, together with Russia, has been supplying Iran's nuclear power project with equipment and providing it with consulting services in nuclear technology. Although the U.S. has repeatedly made it clear to the Czech Foreign Ministry through diplomatic channels that such help provided to Iran by a NATO member is not permissible, the Czech companies continued conducting nuclear business transactions with Teheran. The interruption of cooperation would result in large financial losses for the relevant Czech firms.

Although the Czech Republic recently became a NATO member, this country, which used to be heavily involved in arms dealings with "pariah" regimes, apparently has not ceased these activities completely. Illegal arms transactions, allegedly with Iraq, North Korea, and Yugoslavia, suggest that the Czech businesses, perhaps backed by some elements in the government who are prepared to turn a blind eye to the transactions, are prepared to ignore the country's new geopolitical allegiances. As we have already mentioned, Czech businesses are strongly tempted by the extraordinary profits to be made by selling arms and weapons systems to "pariah" regimes. Prague's relations with its NATO allies will suffer if it continues to ignore the problem -- especially if NATO pilots and soldiers fall victim to the weapons.

The Czech Republic faces a serious dilemma with its future European Union membership. Following the 1993 split of Czechoslovakia, the two newly independent states -- the Czech Republic and Slovakia -- established a customs union agreement that allowed a free movement of goods and services between the two countries. Because the Czech Republic made significant progress towards its European integration, the country has been put on a fast track to the EU accession, together with Hungary, Poland, Estonia, Slovenia, and Cyprus. But Slovakia's European integration process has been delayed due to political criteria non-compliance by the previous government of Vladimir Meciar.

Although Prague and Bratislava both insist on maintaining the economically beneficial single customs area, the EU has repeatedly voiced its opposition to giving Prague an exception from the EU laws. On June 22, EU's commissioner for foreign politics, Hans van den Brooke, said the existing customs union agreement posed a serious obstacle to admitting Prague into the EU. The Czech government now faces a serious dilemma. Either Prague must break the customs union agreement with Slovakia and suffer severe negative economic consequences or it must further threaten its own chances for early integration into the EU by maintaining the treaty. So far attempts to find an acceptable compromise on the issue have failed.

The 1993 customs union agreement between the Czech Republic and Slovakia assures the free movement of goods and services within a single customs unified area, avoiding customs and non-tariff measures. The agreement established a common customs tariff and a trade policy toward third countries. It also guaranteed common customs legislation, tariff measures, and customs certificates. The customs union agreement is so crucial for Prague and Slovakia because economies of the two countries are strongly interconnected.

Although the Czech Republic and Slovakia are both top economic performers among the post-communist countries of Eastern and Central Europe, the two countries' standing with respect to accession into the EU is not equal. Slovakia has been sidetracked from the European integration process due to non- compliance with political criteria, while the Czech Republic fulfills most of the EU membership requirements and is one of six countries that are expected to be admitted into the EU in the first wave.

During accession negotiations between the EU and the Czech Republic, the issue of the Czech-Slovak customs union agreement has resurfaced with the potential to hinder Prague's integration prospects. In May 1999, the EU ruled against the incorporation of the Czech-Slovak customs union agreement into European law. On June 22, EU's commissioner for foreign politics, Hans van den Brooke, said that the existing customs union between the Czech Republic and Slovakia posed a serious obstacle to admitting Prague into the EU. Van den Brooke said the EU's common trade zone would be threatened if Prague were given an exception from the EU law on this matter, as that would force other EU members to install customs controls for checking origins of goods. On June 23, Germany's EU Minister Gunter Verheugen said talks on expanding EU's internal market to the applicant countries were complicated by problems with the Czech Republic, because Prague insists on maintaining the customs union with Slovakia.

Until now, the Czech Republic has been trying to convince the European Union to grant Prague an exception from the EU customs law. The creator of the Czech economic transformation policy, Vaclav Klaus, argued that the Czech-Slovak customs union would be sustained even after his country's admission into the European Union, because other prospective EU members from Eastern Europe have also been given a number of exceptions. Moreover, Prague now appears to be looking for a solution to the customs union issue in promoting a transfer of Slovakia into a first group of EU applicant countries. Following the last year parliamentary elections in Slovakia, Prague consistently backed its eastern neighbor's integration efforts. Most recently, Czech Finance Minister Ivo Svoboda expressed support for the idea that Bratislava be included in the first group of aspiring EU members. Prague favors shifting the "Schengen border" from the one between the Czech Republic and Slovakia to the Slovak-Ukrainian border.

The new Slovak government of Mikulas Dzurinda, which declared achieving EU and NATO membership its top priority, would welcome acceleration of its European integration as a solution to the problem the Czech-Slovak customs union poses in regards to EU's enlargement. The worst scenario for Bratislava would be a breakup of the customs union with Prague, as such act would significantly undermine the country's economy. Slovakia and the Czech Republic, therefore, were up till now acting jointly on the issue of the customs union in regards to the EU expansion. Following the most recent statements by the EU indicating serious opposition by this multinational grouping to granting Prague the exception for the EU customs law, the Czech Republic has been put in an extremely difficult position. Prague was given a choice to either terminate its customs treaty with Bratislava, or to be seriously handicapped in its European accession process.

While politically the Czech Republic and Slovakia have followed their own paths, they have not been able to, nor has there been a great need to, shake the deep economic integration instilled over years of union. Their different politics separated the Czech Republic and Slovakia in the accession process, but their economic ties now make this politically-rooted timing decision a difficult and potentially quite painful one to carry out. Ironically for the EU, if it succeeds in forcing Prague to dissolve its customs union with Slovakia, the resulting economic damage to the Czech Republic may leave the EU with an economic cripple for a new member. Like conjoined twins that share certain organs but different personalities, the Czech Republic and Slovakia are as hard to split as they are to accept as one.

Neither the EU or Prague wants the Czech Republic to be economically damaged, while both sides want the Czech Republic in the EU. This raises the question, does the Czech Republic want EU membership more, or does the EU want the Czech Republic more? It also raises the question, which will cause the EU more economic pain, accepting a crippled Czech Republic or accepting the Czech Republic and its conjoined twin? With the looming return of confrontation between Europe and Russia, the Czech Republic does not want to be caught in the middle. By the same token, the Czech Republic is already in NATO, and so Europe has a vested interest in seeing that it remains economically and politically healthy and integrated with the West. Given the fact that most Western European countries are currently headed by socialist governments worrying about the social impact of EU's eastward expansion, Prague should not expect the EU to be inclined to letting itself opened to a free flow of commodities and labor force from the Eastern Europe.

Neither side has an easy choice to make. Given its options, it is unlikely Prague would make any extreme decision in the near future. Rather, Prague can be expected to keep pushing for some kind of a compromise. Europe might just play along for a while, if only to postpone a painful decision. In the interim, Slovakia again becomes key -- as key to sustainable EU expansion as it was to viable NATO expansion.

Following the autumn 1998 parliamentary elections in Slovakia, in which democratic forces ousted former Prime Minister Meciar from power, the country's prospects for integration with western economic and politico-military structures have improved. Most recently, head of the European Commission's negotiating team, Nikolaus van der Pas, said at a meeting with the Slovak Foreign Ministry Secretary, Jan Figel, that Slovakia could theoretically catch up with the first wave of countries currently participating in EU accession talks. Because the process of implementing necessary reforms and of adjusting legislation to that of the EU requires considerable effort and time, it is questionable, however, if Slovakia could catch up with the first group of applicant states.

It is in the interest of all concerned that Slovakia be put on a fast track to catch up with its Eastern European neighbors. All that is missing is money and time.

Czech opinion polls indicate the Czech Communist Worker's Party (KSCM), which already has 4 seats in the Czech senate, will increase its share in upcoming elections. One-third of the 81 seats are up for grabs in the August 27 vote. The front-runner is the dominant Czech Social Democratic Party (CSSD), now holding 23 seats. The second largest party, the right-wing Civic Democratic Party (ODS), holds 26.

If opinion polls accurately reflect voters' intentions, the Czech senate will be a very different place after the election. Communist representation could double. At this point KSCM's popularity stands at about 17 percent, with the ruling party CSSD at 15 percent and the ODS at 23 percent.

While there is lingering resentment at the loss of Slovakia, much of the surge in support for the KSCM and right-wing opposition groups is pure frustration at a badly mishandled economy. The Czech Republic, like Slovakia, is in a deep recession. Worried about unemployment, the Czechs are increasingly interested in trying to keep Slovak workers out of the republic.

Topping it off, the republic's decision to join the European Union, which is struggling even to build a common currency, is widely seen as stretching the limits of a mismanaged economy. Czech dependence on the EU is growing, too. Czech central bankers are testing the international bond markets, with reported plans for a US$300 million bond issue.

Though desired, the reality of the transition to the West has been a jolting surprise to many Czechs. Acceptance to NATO earlier this year has come with a considerable price tag. Early in the year, western militaries began turning up the pressure for aspiring nations to modernize their militaries. And as soon as the summit in Washington granted the Czechs membership, they were asked to extend overflight rights to alliance aircraft enroute to bomb Yugoslavia. As the war dragged on, and talk of invasion mounted, the republic faced the unpleasant prospect of having to help invade a fellow Slavic nation.

The communists opposed entry into NATO, when the senate voted in April, 1998, to seek membership by a margin of 64 to 2. Ever since then, the KSCM has been taking advantage of anti-Western sentiment, including feelings against radical economic reform. NATO's bombing of Yugoslav bridges on the Danube River triggered Vojtech Filip, the leader of the KSCM deputies group, to accuse U.S. President Bill Clinton, U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright, and Gen. Wesley Clark, the NATO commander, of war crimes. Though extreme, these accusations are consistent with the KSCM perspective.

KSCM is hostile to the growing U.S. and German influence in the region and the West's effort to co-opt post-Soviet states for Western strategic advances. Features of KSCM that make the party attractive to voters are its active campaign for socialism, its anti-corruption platform and cooperation with unions and interest organizations.

Support for the party is genuine; but communism in the Czech Republic is not fashionable, and is not favored by dispirited youth. The party appears set for a promising minority role in the parliament. Senate seats are held for six-year terms, allowing KSCM to profit heavily.

The rise of communists in what is arguably a crown jewel for NATO suggests a broader problem. Democracy has clearly won in what was once called Eastern Europe. Capitalism is still an uncomfortable companion. Poland's coalition government has begun to tackle difficult economic reforms, particularly in heavy industry, that were once seen as too tough. Reform is the price of joining the EU. Poland will have to grapple with tension between its trade unions and pro-market forces.

Hungary has created growth by selling off state-run enterprises to foreign investors; today foreign-owned firms account for one-third of the economy and two-thirds of exports. But Hungary, too, has a long way to go in becoming part of the West it has ostensibly joined.

In the Czech Republic, an increase in KSCM senate seats will give the communists more leverage, particularly as their politics are not entirely incompatible with other parties. With a larger senate presence, the KSCM will be involved in more of the give-and-take of democratic politics. This will enable it to influence the outcome of much legislation, including legislation dealing with relations with the West. The Czech Republic's cooperation with NATO, then, stands a greater chance to be challenged in the long term. This will be especially true if other parties start contending with KSCM's popularity by borrowing from the anti-NATO, anti-EU sentiments in their campaigns.

On the tenth anniversary of the Nov. 17 Velvet Revolution, which led to the fall of communism, six former student leaders organized the movement they call, "Thanks, now go!" The leaders of the appeal - Martin Mejstrik, Simon Panek, Igor Chaun, Vlastimil Jezek, Josef Broz and Vratislav Rehak - signed a joint statement demanding the resignation of the government, including Prime Minister Milos Zeman and Chamber of Deputies Chairman Vaclav Klaus. The group also demanded early elections, but has not said for whom, as neither the prime minister, the chairman nor the Cabinet are publicly elected.

The movement has received widespread support in the past several weeks. The organizers say that 150,000 Czechs have signed their demand. In a Sofres-Factum poll reported Nov. 29, a total of 73.8 percent of those questioned said that they would either vote for the appeal in an election, or would at least not rule out voting for it. On Dec. 3, an estimated 50,000 people massed in Prague's Wenceslas Square, and thousands in other cities around the country also gathered to support the appeal. Encouraged, Broz told the daily, Lidove Noviny, that the movement is now planning to register as the Party of Civic Decency (SOS). Many Czechs are disgusted with the stagnant coalition government, whose internal disagreements are preventing progress.

The Czech people are overwhelmingly in favor of a change, due to increasingly poor economic conditions and the challenges posed by joining NATO and the EU. Reform in the country has reached a standstill, and leaders are fighting to overcome strict Western requirements for integration. In a telling election in late August, the only independent candidate running for one parliamentary seat, Vaclav Fischer, won against the major parties by an overwhelming 71 percent. In the Nov. 29th Sofres-Factum poll results, 76.5 percent of those polled wanted Prime Minister Zeman to resign and 61.5 wanted Chairman Klaus to step down. The Czech people want change, but the SOS movement may not be ready to handle the responsibility.

As a political party, SOS faces internal divisions and a platform strictly limited to bringing down the administration. Both Chaun and Panek have said they are not considering joining the SOS or running for political office. They merely want to bring in the other parties to handle the political crisis in the Czech Republic, Panek told the Czech News Agency (CTK). There are no candidates or charismatic leaders for an SOS ballot in the event of an early election. And, as it stands, the SOS platform does not propose an alternative plan for the future; it merely urges early elections and the resignation of the government. The protest has been simple in comparison to offering a workable alternative for the future.

A decade after the fall of communism, the Czechs are still more closely tied to the East than to the West. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSCM) has been gaining popular support, despite animosity toward the communists 10 years ago. It enjoyed approximately 17 percent popularity in August and now has an estimated 22 percent support, which makes it the most popular party, according to a STEM poll from early November.

Also, the Czech Republic is failing to integrate with the West. It is struggling to meet EU requirements and was sharply criticized in October when an EU Commission report cited it for failing to make necessary economic and legislative reforms. In the same month, government reports were leaked which named Prague as the main base for the Russian international spy network.

If the SOS achieves early elections, it may unintentionally give the KSCM a renewed chance at influence in the Czech Republic. With SOS fighting for a change in government yet presenting no solutions, it may be able to call early elections but, without an alternative, will be unable to capitalize on the results. As support for the KSCM has increased over past months, elections could be in its favor. If the population realizes that the SOS has no concrete candidates or future goals, the Communists could take advantage of the power gap and use their increasing support to gain positions in the administration.

Not only would increased Communist authority redirect the Czech Republic's domestic agenda, but it would also play into the tug-of- war between Russia and the West in the Eastern European states. NATO, already having trouble integrating the Czech Republic into the security alliance, would be faced with an immediate crisis.