Armenia
In speeches at the summit of the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) last week, both Azerbaijani President
Geidar Aliev and Armenian President Robert Kocharian called for the
creation of a security pact in the South Caucasus. The pact would
include Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, Russia and the United
States. And it would exclude any foreign military presence from the
South Caucasus.
Armenia is a strategically significant crossroad in the shipment of
oil and gas from the Caspian Sea, and it is the frontier between
the former Soviet satellite states and Turkey. Until now, Armenia
has been Russia's greatest ally in the region. But the agreement
would require the withdrawal of Russian troops from Armenia,
undermining a longtime alliance. Instead, Armenia would suddenly be
in the camp of its traditional enemies.
At the summit in Istanbul, Kocharian departed dramatically from the
long-running script of his country's foreign policy. In addition to
calling for a departure of Russian troops from the South Caucasus,
Kocharian expressed a desire to improve relations with Armenia's
most hated historical enemy, Turkey. The president was quoted by
the Armenian SNARK news agency as saying that while he cannot
forgive Turkey's murder of 600,000 Armenians during World War I, he
is willing to work around it. Relations, he said, should not be
based on "selective historical memory and complete amnesia."
Taken together, the president's moves indicate a serious change of
heart in Yerevan. The Oct. 27 assassination of the prime minister
and parliamentary speaker
[ http://www.stratfor.com/cis/commentary/c9910271947.htm ] - who were
leaders of the majority Unity bloc parties - left the government
unstable. Out of this instability, Armenia has now turned toward
the West. This is a significant change, considering the barriers to
such a move.
Armenia is turning its back on what has been its strongest ally in
the region: Russia. Russia provides Armenia with defense assistance
and has more than 4,100 troops stationed in Armenia, centered at
Military Base 102. Suggesting that the Russian military leave is a
slap in Moscow's face.
The Kocharian governmentis also trying to overcome deep-seated
regional hostilities. In the security pact, Armenia would enter
into a defense agreement with two neighbors that have been violent
enemies. In addition to the memory of Turkey's Ottoman-era
massacres, Armenia has feuded with Azerbaijan over the Nagorno-
Karabakh region. Though located in Azerbaijan, the region is
populated by ethnic Armenians. Armenia has supported their demands
for self-rule. The resultant disputes with Azerbaijan have been
bloody. The economic blockade imposed by the rest of the region has
nearly strangled the Armenian economy.
That he would move to ally with historical enemies suggests
Kocharian is seriously spooked. In justifying his shift, the
president cited fears of terrorism destabilizing the region. That
he did not turn to his Russian allies -- but rather moved to expel
them -- suggests that Kocharian's scare may have come from Russia.
Russia was overly eager to send forces in the wake of the October
assassinations. Moscow sent its elite Alpha Group anti-terrorist
unit, run by the Federal Security Services
[ http://www.stratfor.com/cis/commentary/c9910281907.htm ]. Prime
Minister Vladimir Putin also seized the opportunity to argue for a
stronger Russian military presence in the region. In the weeks since,
Russia has aggressively suggested that Armenia's neighbors to the
north, Azerbaijan and Georgia, are harboring Chechen rebels. And
Russian military officials have expressed their intent to exert
greater control over the border with the South Caucasus
[ http://www.stratfor.com/SERVICES/GIU/102999.ASP].
At the same time,Armenia's political scene has been distinctly
unsettled since the assassinations. Kocharian has struggled over
control of the state security apparatus. The president replaced the
murdered prime minister with his brother, Aram Sarkisian. A former
cement executive with no obvious political background, Sarkisian
clashed with the president over the naming of a new interior
minister and a new national security minister. The dispute grew so
unpleasant that Kocharian threatened to resign, according to the
local newspaper, Aravot. He has since denied it. But Kocharian has
drawn a loyalist, former National Security Minister Serge
Sarkisian, even closer in a bid to keep control of the government.
The debut of Kocharian's new foreign policy at the OSCE summit
suggests a deep concern over Russia's intentions towards his
country, at a time in which Armenia is extremely vulnerable.